Kudos to Millennials

Millennials have gotten their share of bad press, so it's good to see them receive a bit of praise in an article by the sage of American politics, Michael Barone. Citing statistics to buttress his case, Barone writes that "the most crime-prone age and gender cohort — 15-to-25-year-old males — are committing far fewer crimes than that cohort did in 1990."

• In the past two decades, the murder rate fell 49%, forcible rape fell 33%, robbery rate fell 48%, and aggravated assault fell 39%.
• Sexual assaults against 12-to-17-year-olds fell by more than half.
• Violent victimization of teenagers at school declined 60%.
• Binge-drinking in high school is lower than at any time since 1976, and sexual intercourse among 9th graders has declined.
• A recent Justice Department report showed the rape rate on college campuses was 0.6%.
• While unmarried parenthood has risen, teen births have been in sharp decline. The latest statistics tell us that birth rates are, unusually, up among married women and down among unmarried women.

 Barone theorizes why this trend might be happening:

I think what we are seeing is a mass changing of minds, something like the movement in Victorian England toward what historian Gertrude Himmelfarb described as “the morality that dignifies and civilizes human beings.”

My theory is that young people do what is expected of them, in two senses of the word “expected.” One is statistical expectation. Americans in 1990 expected young people, especially from disadvantaged backgrounds, to commit lots of crimes. They had been doing so, after all, for 25 years. But Rudy Giuliani and others adapting his methods reduced crime dramatically, and statistical expectations rapidly changed.

The other sense of the word “expected” is moral expectation. A parent tells a boy he is expected not to shoplift, bully, rob, rape or kill. She tells a girl she is expected not to sleep around or get pregnant. The parents of the last 25 years grew up in years of high crime, high divorce and high unmarried births. Evidently they wanted — expected — something better from their own children.

Liberty with Virtue or Vice

Rachel Lu has a thought-provoking article on the much blogged-about “libertarian moment.” She examines the differences between the “libertine libertarian” perspective (a 'vice' focused liberty leading to James Poulos’s pink police state) and “conventional libertarian” perspective (a 'virtue' focused liberty leading to smaller government undergirded by stronger family, community, and economic systems), and what’s at stake for Millennials going forward.

In If Millennials Want Liberty, They Need Virtue, Too, the author concludes:

“I do not believe this grim dystopia is inevitable. Human cultures are remarkably dynamic, and ours has ‘good bones’; we still have a chance to show young Americans that there are better alternatives than the tired non-solutions of the progressive Left. But we have to understand that the culture wars and the size-of-government wars are connected on a deep level. If we can’t persuade the young to embrace some version of conventional morals, promises of prosperity and greater autonomy will not save our Republic. …

“The good news is that Millennials, although largely dismissive of conventional morality, have only the vaguest notion of what they are rejecting. A relatively superficial makeover may be enough to make old ideas seem exciting and new. But the project is most likely to succeed if we can seize the libertarian moment by re-committing ourselves to the fusionist compromise. Libertarians and social conservatives do need each other, and not only for the purposes of building a winning coalition. We need each other in order to present a complete and satisfying conservative vision.”

'Young Outsiders' Reject Welfare State

"A newly coined voting block called Young Outsiders has two major attributes — they are socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Really fiscally conservative," writes Kara Mason @ thecollegefix.com.

An overwhelming majority of these Millennial-aged voters actually think government aid does more harm than good, that the government is at its max when it comes to helping the poor, and – get this – that people on the government dole have it way too easy.

These “Young Outsiders” – named by the Pew Research Center in its recently released political typology report, make up about 13 percent of the voting population and could very well swing future elections in Republicans’ favor, research finds. ...

A whopping 86 percent of Young Outsiders believe “government aid to the poor does more harm than good.” What’s more, more than three-fourths of them, 76 percent, said the government can’t afford to help the poor any more than it already is.

And an overwhelming 81 percent agreed that “poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return.”

Making Sense of the Millennial Generation

Millennials' political views don't make any sense is the headline of an Atlantic article about a new Reason-Rube survey of millennials. Senior editor Derek Thompson writes:

Millennial politics is simple, really. Young people support big government, unless it costs any more money. They're for smaller government, unless budget cuts scratch a program they've heard of. They'd like Washington to fix everything, just so long as it doesn't run anything.

That's all from a new Reason Foundation poll surveying 2,000 young adults between the ages of 18 and 29. Millennials' political views are, at best, in a stage of constant metamorphosis and, at worst, "totally incoherent," as Dylan Matthews puts it.

It's not just the Reason Foundation. In March, Pew came out with a similar survey of Millennial attitudes that offered another smorgasbord of paradoxes:

• Millennials hate the political parties more than everyone else, but they have the highest opinion of Congress.
• Young people are the most likely to be single parents and the least likely to approve of single parenthood.
• Young people voted overwhelmingly for Obama when he promised universal health care, but they oppose his universal health care law as much as the rest of the country ... even though they still pledge high support for universal health care. (Like other groups, but more so: They seem allergic to the term Obamacare.)

Thompson has three takeaways from the poll.

1. Millennials are more liberal but they get more economically conservative when they make more money.
   
2. Millennials don't know what they're talking about when it comes to economics. He cites several examples of conflicting, even irreconcilable, ideological positions. Examples: 58% want to cut taxes overall, but 66 % want to raise taxes on the wealthy; 66% say 'when something is funded by government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful', but more than two-thirds think government should guarantee food, shelter and a living wage.
3. Millennials don't know what socialism is, but they think it sounds nice: 42% think socialism is preferable to capitalism, but only 16% could accurately define socialism in the survey. [To their credit, 52% said capitalism is the better system.]

Yet maybe the explanation for millennial ideological schizophrenia is as simple as this: their transition from childhood idealism to adult realism is taking years longer than previous generations.

Twenty-somethings in the 1940s had childhood idealism brutally stripped from them by a world war overseas and rationing of food, gas, and every other material good at home. Forced to face and overcome evil and deprivation, they went on to become "the greatest generation" of achievement and accomplishment.

In contrast, many of today's twenty-somethings reside in the protected economic shelter of family (living at home or subsidized by it) and/or government (subsidized by student loans, food stamps, etc.). They can afford to cling to childhood idealism longer.

The question isn't whether the 86-million-strong millennials will come to grips with adult economic realities (they will have to at some point). It's whether the nation can economically survive the length of time it's taking for them to do so.

Payne: Millennials New 'Sins'

"If you speak to the average 20-something or Millennial about the concept of sin," writes Daniel Payne @ thefederalist.com, "you may be treated to a kind of quasi-Unitarian dismissal of the concept, a sort of uncomfortable rejection of the notion of ecclesiastical proscription in any sense: 'I’m very spiritual,' you’ll hear a lot, 'but not religious'."

Yet the Millennials, having sloughed off the religious notions of their parents and grandparents—at least one-third of Generation Yers are more or less without religion—have taken it upon themselves to adopt a new set of mandates and dictates to guide their lives.

Call them the “new sins,” a number of commandments by which one might stay on the narrow way. The old interdictions now cast aside, a new series of injunctions must be obeyed: and like most religions and denominations, adherence to these commandments is held sacrosanct, any deviation from them fairly blasphemous.

Read The New Sins of 'Nonjudgmental' Millennials for Payne's take on Millennials'

• climate change dogma;
• the church of gay sex; and
• the priestly class of Washington DC.

Atlantic: Today's 27 Yr Olds, in Charts

"What are today's young adults really like?" asks Jordan Weissman @ the Atlantic.

In the spring of 2002, the government's researchers began tracking a group of roughly 15,000 high school sophomores—most of whom would be roughly age 27 today—with the intention of following them through early adulthood.

In 2012, the government’s researchers handed their subjects an enormous survey about their lives in the real world. Here, I've pulled together the most interesting findings. (One important note: I've shorthanded this group as "today's 27-year-olds." But again, not all of the study participants are precisely that age.)

Below are a few of the charts Weissman developed from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002.

For more, see Highly Educated, Highly Indebted: The Lives of Today's 27-Year-Olds, in Charts.

Youth Vote: A Millennial Speaks

"In the past year, failed policies and broken promises have caused Millennials to become increasingly disillusioned with the Obama administration, causing a shift on the political spectrum to the right among young voters," writes conservative University of Arizona student Julianne Stanford at CollegeFix.com.

The "never-ending economic recession" heads her to-do list for those wanting to capitalize on Millennial discontent. "They shoulder massive student loan debts and dismal job prospects."

Second, "offer viable suggestions to reverse the damage done to Millennials by the Affordable Care Act..."

Third, get with it in getting their message out. "This means candidates must use mediums that appeal to young voters, such as social networking, targeted advertisement, and hitting the pavement to meet voters in person."

Last, dump the "stodgy old men with sinister ties to big business" image, and find messengers that appeal to Millennials.

Millennials are presenting a great opportunity, she argues, and it shouldn't be squandered.

Read her full article.

Year of Millennial Revolt

"Here’s a New Year’s prediction guaranteed to last longer than your new gym membership: 2014 will be the year of the millennial revolt," write Chris Beach and Alison Howard. "It will be the year that a majority of millennials become disillusioned with their allegiance to today’s liberal movement and look elsewhere for political relevance."

They argue "the shift is already underway" (see Harvard University's Institute of Politics survey showing millennials' approval of Obama at 41%) and "the Obama administration has brought this upon itself, through its policies and its juvenile and patronizing outreach to millennials."

Pajama Boy ("a far cry from the Marlboro Man"), The Life of Julia ("the campaign wanted to paint her as an 'independent' woman, but it only revealed her extreme dependency on all things government"), and Colorado's pro-Obamacare ads paint an unappealing picture of millennials:

These ads depict millennials as emotional, instinctive animals acting on appetites, impulses, and desires rather than moral and intellectual beings capable of acting according to reason and prudence. ...

For many millennials, the scales have fallen. They realize that the future of Obamacare depends on their signing up to pay higher insurance premiums and deductibles. In the era of iPhones and PS4s, they realize that a government that can’t design a website can’t be expected to manage the intricacies of the entire health-care industry. In the wake of the news that the NSA collects mountains of metadata, they also fret that the government that wants you to talk about health care could (with a warrant) listen in on that very conversation.

Citing data suggesting "millennials actually share more conservative views of government than the conventional wisdom, or even millennials themselves, would lead you to believe," the authors argue that conservatives have a a real opportunity "to win back millennials."

Rather than pander or talk down to them, conservatives must offer positive, uplifting solutions that emphasize upward mobility, opportunity, and personal liberty through education, job creation, and reforming the over-intrusive federal government."

Read the full article, Millennials Are Tiring of Liberal Failures.

Harvard: Younger Millennials would "Throw Obama Out"

"The most startling finding of Harvard University's Institute of Politics [study]: A majority of Americans under age 25—the youngest millennials—would favor throwing Obama out of office," writes Ron Fournier @ National Journal.

Obama's support among Millennials has dropped to 41 percent, down 11 points in a year, according to Harvard's study of 2,089 Americans ages 18 to 29 conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 11.  Younger MILs ages 18-24 are more critical than older MILs.

When asked if they would want to recall various elected officials, 45 percent of millennials said they would oust their member of Congress; 52 percent replied "all members of Congress" should go; and 47 percent said they would recall Obama. The recall-Obama figure was even higher among the youngest millennials, ages 18 to 24, at 52 percent.

This age group offers little support to Obamacare, the health care law that depends on youthful exuberance and financial support to succeed.

According to the poll, 57 percent of millennials disapprove of Obamacare, with 40 percent saying it will worsen their quality of care and a majority believing it will drive up costs. Only 18 percent say Obamacare will improve their care. Among 18-to-29-year-olds currently without health insurance, less than one-third say they're likely to enroll in the Obamacare exchanges.  [snip]

In addition to health care, domestic spying is an issue that puts Obama on the wrong side of the rising generation. While split on whether Edward Snowden is a "patriot" or a "traitor" for revealing Obama's surveillance programs, strong majorities of 18-to-29-year-olds oppose the government collecting information from social networks, Web-browsing histories, email, GPS locations, telephone calls, and text messages.

Fournier adds that the "results conform with a story I did this summer with the help of the Institute of Politics (The Outsiders: How Can Millennials Change Washington If They Hate It?), arguing that while Millennials are deeply committed to public service they don't see government as an efficient way to improve their lives or their communities."

The full Harvard study is here.

Gillespie: Youth Revolting Against Obama

"Millennials may be young," writes libertarian Nick Gillespie, "but they're not stupid."

Citing the latest Quinnipiac poll showing 54% of 18- to 29-year-olds now disapprove of the job President Obama doing (compared to 36% who approve), Gillespie argues (with strong uncensored language) that the love affair between Obama/Democrats and youth actually began waning immediately after Obama took office in 2008.

In 2008, Obama won 66 percent of votes cast by 18-29 year olds. In 2012, he racked up just 60 percent. More tellingly, the participation rate among younger voters dropped precipitously between those elections, with Obama pulling 2.4 million fewer votes from 18-29 year olds in 2012. The second time around, he just wasn’t putting young asses in the voting booth anymore.

Obamacare may be the "cherry on top of a shit sundae," says Gillespie, but there are lots of other fault lines including Obama's stimulus fail, foreign war and nearly-war policies, increased deportation of illegals, drone strikes, privacy invasion and a government with way too much power over their lives.

Yet the biggest reason for the soured relationship is likely to be personal economics:

As bad as Obama’s time in office has been for older Americans, nobody has taken it on the chin quite as bad as kids under 30, who are more likely to be unemployed, broke, and facing decades of sub-par wages if and when they do finally get a job.

OCare Millennial Ads: Desperate and Insulting

Just how stupid does the Obama Administration think Millennials are?  Really stupid, if the new Obamacare ads are an indicator. Here's one of the OCare ads rolled out this week. It's supposed to motivate Millennials to sign up for OCare insurance to get the "free" birth control:


Arizona State University student Annica Benning @ College Fix calls the ads "insulting on many levels," including belittling the progress women have made over the years toward equality and independence.

In order to get the "free" birth control, of course, MILs must sign up for Obamacare insurance. In Colorado, where the ads were released, the Obamacare insurance premium costs an average $192.35 per month for adults age 27 (see Heritage Foundation state-by-state estimates).

So Colorado Susie’s cheap $9 per month birth control pills just went up to $192.35 per month.

For a laugh, we edited OCare's ad to bring a little honesty to it:

Who is responsible for this marketing wonder?  Per Michelle Malkin,

The “Got Insurance?” campaign is the lame brainchild of two “progressive” outfits with dubious nonprofit status: ProgressNow and the Colorado Consumer Health Initiative. Their previous claim to fame: a “Thanks, Obamacare” social-media movement to propagandize praise and gratitude for the federal mandate.

If the Democrats aren't careful, they'll wrestle the "Stupid Party" label from the GOP!