Survey: Record Low Confidence in Government

"Americans' confidence in all three branches of government is at or near record lows, according to a major survey that has measured attitudes on the subject for 40 years," reports the Associated Press.

The 2014 General Social Survey finds only 23 percent of Americans have a great deal of confidence in the Supreme Court, 11 percent in the executive branch and 5 percent in Congress. By contrast, half have a great deal of confidence in the military.

The survey is conducted by the independent research organization NORC at the University of Chicago. Because of its long-running and comprehensive set of questions about the public, it is a highly regarded source of data about social trends. 

The 11% figure for the presidency "approaches a record low measured by the same survey in 1996, when just 10 percent said they had a great deal of confidence in the executive branch," and the 23% figure for the Supreme Court represents a 40-year low.

Media fared almost as badly as Congress, earning a record-low 7% confidence rating. "Only 1 in 10 has a lot of confidence in television, which is also near a record low," reports the AP.

The Incredibly Tiny Gay, Bisexual Population

Americans Have No Idea How Few Gay People There Are was the headline of a June 2012 Atlantic magazine article on the percentage of gay and lesbian population in the U.S., real and perceived.

In surveys conducted in 2002 and 2011, pollsters at Gallup found that members of the American public massively overestimated how many people are gay or lesbian. In 2002, a quarter of those surveyed guessed upwards of a quarter of Americans were gay or lesbian (or "homosexual," the third option given).

By 2011, that misperception had only grown, with more than a third of those surveyed now guessing that more than 25 percent of Americans are gay or lesbian. Women and young adults were most likely to provide high estimates, approximating that 30 percent of the population is gay. Overall, "U.S. adults, on average, estimate that 25 percent of Americans are gay or lesbian," Gallup found.

Only 4 percent of all those surveyed in 2011 and about 8 percent of those surveyed in 2002 correctly guessed that fewer than 5 percent of Americans identify as gay or lesbian.

Now it appears even 5 percent was too high an estimate. This week the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the results of "the first large-scale government survey measuring Americans' sexual orientation," reports Sandhya Somashekhar @ Washington Post — a survey that "comprised 33,557 adults between the ages of 18 and 64."

The National Health Interview Survey, which is the government’s premier tool for annually assessing Americans’ health and behaviors, found that 1.6 percent of adults self-identify as gay or lesbian, and 0.7 percent consider themselves bisexual.

The overwhelming majority of adults, 96.6 percent, labeled themselves as straight in the 2013 survey. An additional 1.1 percent declined to answer, responded “I don’t know the answer” or said they were “something else.”

The figures offered a slightly smaller assessment of the size of the gay, lesbian and bisexual population than other surveys, which have pegged the overall proportion at closer to 3.5 or 4 percent. In particular, the estimate for bisexuals was lower than in some other surveys. 

Harvard's Revealing Poll of Millennials

The revelations in the latest Harvard Institute of Politics' (IOP) survey of the Millennial generation (MILs, ages 18-29) is surprising the left and the right.

MILs have lost much of their enthusiasm for elections. Paul Bedard writes:

The 25th “Survey of Young Americans' Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service,” which interviewed 3,058 18- to 29-year-olds, revealed a swing away from Democrats since President Obama's reelection and the last midterm election in 2010. Harvard officials on a media call cited youth disillusionment with Obama. [snip]

Some 44 percent of younger Republicans said they will vote, compared to just 35 percent of younger Democrats, a group that pushed Obama across the finish line in 2012. Black and Hispanics, two other Democratic groups, are even less enthused, with just 19 percent planning to vote.

Overall, younger voters have the blahs, with just 23 percent saying that they will “definitely be voting” in the midterms. That number was 31 percent in 2010 and 36 percent in 2009.

A generation gap between younger MILs (18-24) and older MILs (25-29) is emerging. Michael Barone observes:

In the 2012 election, there was no significant difference between them: Older Millennials voted 60 percent to 38 percent for Obama, younger Millennials 60 percent to 36 percent.

But the Harvard IOP poll shows Obama approval among older Millennials at 48 percent and among younger Millennials at 45 percent. ... There is an even bigger, and statistically significant, difference between the two age cohorts on Hillary Clinton's favorability: 57 percent among older Millennials, 47 percent among younger Millennials. 

Barone hypothesizes that "attitudes continue to be affected by one's first years of interest in politics." Older MILs became politically aware during George W. Bush's unsuccessful term, while younger MILs came of age during Barack Obama's unsuccessful tenure.

MILs now have "historically low" levels of trust in government. Hunter Walker writes:

This chart created by the pollsters shows the steep declines in their "composite trust index," which is the level of trust on average in six different public institutions; the President, the U.S. Military, the Supreme Court, the federal government, and the United Nations. The drop is dramatic [chart by IOP, Harvard.edu]:

How Muslims Believe Women Should Dress

Via NRO-Corner: The University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research conducted a study in seven Muslim-majority countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Pakistan) on how women should dress in public.

Jacob Poushter of the Pew Global Attitudes Project visually recast the figures in the form shown here. ... Woman No. 4, whose hair and ears are covered by an amira, was overall far and away deemed the most appropriately dressed for appearing in public, with [a median] 44% of the vote, followed in a distant second place by the lighter hijab of woman No. 5 at 12 percent. No head covering at all [woman No. 6] found a measly 4 percent support.

The Michigan study concludes that "it would be hard to connect women's style of dress on the aggregate level to a country's level of development and modernity." Saudi Arabia, "which is economically more developed," has the most restrictive attitudes on women's attire. Concludes NRO:

To put it simply, what counts when it comes to women’s attire in public is values, not wealth. Phrased differently, Westernization is an inextricable part of modernization, whether that means democracy, Beethoven, or unveiled women.