Harvard's Revealing Poll of Millennials

The revelations in the latest Harvard Institute of Politics' (IOP) survey of the Millennial generation (MILs, ages 18-29) is surprising the left and the right.

MILs have lost much of their enthusiasm for elections. Paul Bedard writes:

The 25th “Survey of Young Americans' Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service,” which interviewed 3,058 18- to 29-year-olds, revealed a swing away from Democrats since President Obama's reelection and the last midterm election in 2010. Harvard officials on a media call cited youth disillusionment with Obama. [snip]

Some 44 percent of younger Republicans said they will vote, compared to just 35 percent of younger Democrats, a group that pushed Obama across the finish line in 2012. Black and Hispanics, two other Democratic groups, are even less enthused, with just 19 percent planning to vote.

Overall, younger voters have the blahs, with just 23 percent saying that they will “definitely be voting” in the midterms. That number was 31 percent in 2010 and 36 percent in 2009.

A generation gap between younger MILs (18-24) and older MILs (25-29) is emerging. Michael Barone observes:

In the 2012 election, there was no significant difference between them: Older Millennials voted 60 percent to 38 percent for Obama, younger Millennials 60 percent to 36 percent.

But the Harvard IOP poll shows Obama approval among older Millennials at 48 percent and among younger Millennials at 45 percent. ... There is an even bigger, and statistically significant, difference between the two age cohorts on Hillary Clinton's favorability: 57 percent among older Millennials, 47 percent among younger Millennials. 

Barone hypothesizes that "attitudes continue to be affected by one's first years of interest in politics." Older MILs became politically aware during George W. Bush's unsuccessful term, while younger MILs came of age during Barack Obama's unsuccessful tenure.

MILs now have "historically low" levels of trust in government. Hunter Walker writes:

This chart created by the pollsters shows the steep declines in their "composite trust index," which is the level of trust on average in six different public institutions; the President, the U.S. Military, the Supreme Court, the federal government, and the United Nations. The drop is dramatic [chart by IOP, Harvard.edu]: